3 thoughts after the Padres' 3-2 win over the Dodgers
With a rookie (again) leading off the series on the mound, the Padres (again) showed the Dodgers that they're not going down without a fight this season.
The season series between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers is now tied at 2-2 after San Diego took a game at Chavez Ravine last night. Just like the first three games between these two teams, Thursday night’s game was epic.
Ryan Weathers is unbelievable
Here’s a very brief summary of the start of Ryan Weathers’ career:
He jumped from single A ball to the MLB Playoffs to pitch a scoreless inning against the eventual World Series champions
His first two MLB starts came consecutively, and both against the best team in baseball. In 9.1 innings, he did this: 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 9 K
After 15 innings pitched this season, he holds an ERA of 0.59
I don’t even know how to react to that! It seems impossible. He’s setting the bar at “best pitcher in the league” right out of the gate instead of building up to it and I know that’s not….possible. Right?
It’s almost impossible to believe that Weathers has been this good. He’s not really overpowering, but he does pitch like the veteran that his father was. All of his pitches have lots of movement and he knows where they’re all going. That’s a skill you don’t find in most 21 year olds.
He’s also kryptonite for the Dodgers, who still hit right-handed pitchers better than left-handed pitchers. Still, the simple fact that he has now shut them down in back-to-back starts as a rookie is one of the most incredible things I’ve ever seen in April.
That double play!
If you weren’t able to watch the game last night, at least watch this play:
I don’t know that I can properly express how dim things felt before this play. The Padres held a 2-0 lead as the teams started opening up the bullpens and it felt like a win was likely, until…
Emilio Pagan imploded. It happens with relief pitchers from time to time and it’s not really his fault. He didn’t have it on Thursday, and gave up back-to-back home runs to the first two batters he faced in the 7th inning. Suddenly, the game was tied. Here come the Dodgers.
In the 8th inning, the Padres turned to Nabil Crismatt. You read that right. With a bullpen full of former closers, the Padres trusted Nabil Crismatt to get through the 8th inning of this tie game with the Dodgers offense smelling blood. Crismatt was added to the roster earlier in the day, and was last seen pitching a full start after Blake Snell got torched by the Pirates.
Despite getting the Padres out of the jam in the 7th, he had nothing in the 8th. He quickly gave up a single and then whatever the hell this is happened:
After that, the Dodgers had two guys in scoring position with no outs and trailing the Padres by one. It felt over.
Tim Hill was called in from the bullpen and first got Max Muncy to ground out to Jake Cronenworth. No runs scored.
Then the team decided to walk A.J. Pollock, in hopes of getting an inning-ending double-play.
Hill got Sheldon Neuse to hit another ball on the ground at Jake Cronenworth, but this one had some hair on it. Cronenworth knocked it down while falling over, spun around and tossed it underhand to Fernando Tatis Jr. (whose toe was just barely grazing second base) who fired an 87mph strike to an outstretched Eric Hosmer (who fell over as soon as he caught the ball) to barely beat Neuse to first base.
Every single part of the play felt like a miracle. From Tim Hill getting a groundball from a right-handed hitter, to Cronenworth’s quick recovery, to Tatis throwing a laser with an ailing shoulder, to Hosmer’s stretch and fall. It was like watching a beautiful ballet that was taking place on a high-wire.
A lot has been written and said about Padres-Dodgers this year. Mostly about how it feels like the old Yankees-Red Sox rivalry, and that feels like an apt description. Personally, I knew that the up-and-coming team facing off against the World Series champions would involve a lot of “the Padres still need to learn how to win” moments for San Diego. Last night was one of them, and the Padres came through.
The weird thing about fastballs
Earlier in the day yesterday, I came across this tweet and immediately went and listened to this podcast:
MLB said they were changing the baseballs over the offseason and they did. Holding back on judgement for now (everything MLB does is stupid), a new baseball means new and unexpected outcomes. The most obvious new outcome we’ve seen so far this year is an increase in fastball velocity, which is making it even harder for hitters to make contact (which was supposed to be one of the reason for making changes to the ball).
Here’s a look at how the Padres have fared against 4-seam fastballs so far this season:
If that looks bad, it’s because it is! Basically, only Eric Hosmer is feasting on fastballs for the Padres. Guys like Caratini, Kim, Campusano and Pham are really struggling to do anything with them.
Now, let’s compare to how the Padres hit fastballs last year:
Yeah, that’s a major difference. Is it a Padres problem or a baseball problem? Well, let’s check in with the Dodgers. Here’s 2021:
Certainly better than the Padres, but when you compare to their 2020:
Again, a pretty dramatic difference. Some of this could simply be that it’s early in the season and guys need to get caught up to MLB speed, but I don’t think so.
I do think that teams and players will be making adjustments over the course of the season because 4-seam fastballs being this hard for hitters to hit is a major advantage for pitchers.
(Special shoutout to Daniel Paylor and Señor Guante in the Padres Hot Tub discord server for discovering the differences in fastball contact and sharing it with me.)