Blake Snell's trial by fire
The Padres' "second ace" is being thrown on the road to figure out how to become a better road pitcher. Yesterday's 3-2 win over the Marlins is a sign that it might be working.
I remember a few weeks ago, when Padres fans started to realize just how dramatic Blake Snell’s home/away splits were, hearing ideas about the team finding ways to only pitch Snell at Petco Park.
Now, that would be absurd for any pitcher. Any starting pitcher, anyway. But for a guy that is a few years removed from winning a Cy Young Award? No, that wasn’t going to happen. He had to figure out how to be better on the road.
Quick stat dive
This is the profile of two completely different pitchers. One of them is an untouchable strikeout machine, probably when Snell is trusting his fastball to lead him. The other one can’t find the strike zone while relying too much on breaking pitches and giving up a ton of hits (and home runs).
Five of his last six starts have been on the road, which is why I titled this article “trial by fire”. The Padres know that to get Snell right on the road, they have to keep throwing him on the road.
Snell’s career splits looks more normal. Most pitchers are better at home, and Snell has been no different. However, this is the first year in which his SO/W ratio and WHIP is so out of whack.
I do find it humorous that Snell has thrown ten more games on the road than at home over his career. Poor guy.
Signs of hope?
Let’s just look at those last six starts for a second.
A 5.13 ERA over six games (five on the road) seems bad until you remember his road ERA this season is over eight. This is (marginal) improvement! Also, the team having a winning record in those six starts is fun.
When you look at his ten best games this season, something fun pops up:
Yup, those are all of Snell’s home starts and then three road starts. Two of those road starts took place in July and one of those took place yesterday.
I’m not going to pretend the Miami Marlins are some sort of offensive juggernaut, but Snell getting one of his best starts of the season on the road is a confidence builder. Especially when he can look back at the recent start in Philly and think about it as step one towards rebuilding himself as a solid road pitcher.
Time for stabilization
Just days away from the trade deadline, it’s funny to see this team really come to life. Guys like Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer (and Jurickson Profar!) that we had been worried about are playing great baseball, although part of that seems to be the team being more careful about when Hosmer gets to the plate and who he’s facing.
If the pitching can find some similar stabilization, in the form of improved performance from Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove and Mark Melancon, it would really help to clarify what A.J. Preller needs to look for at the trade deadline (depth) and what he doesn’t (impact players).
I think the Padres, adding Austin Nola back to the team and finally in a place where they can play games consistently without concerns for the weather, are ready to go on a little tear. This series in Miami is their chance to make their road record look better and quiet the critics that say that they play down to their competition.
It could’ve gotten off to a rough start with Snell on the mound but it didn’t. It could’ve spun out of control when the Marlins scored a couple of late runs, or when Melancon came in with a one-run lead, but it didn’t. They won game one. I think the other three games in this series are vitally important, and the opportunity is there to begin catching up to the Dodgers and Giants.