Fernando Tatis Jr. is the MVP front-runner
Looking at the very good case for Fernando Tatis Jr. to win the National League MVP Award at just 22 years old.
I am, typically, a bit of a grump. One way in which this comes out is during “M-V-P” chants.
You know the chants. They happen at MLB games during at-bats, at NBA games during free throws, and occasionally at NFL games, too. It’s the hometown’s fans way of saying that they believe that their guy should win the MVP award that season, but it’s hardly ever based in reality.
Usually, my response when I hear the M-V-P chant is to roll my eyes and mutter under my breath about how unlikely that scenario is. This was my response when, sitting in my seats at Petco Park earlier this season, the Padres fans started chanting M-V-P for Fernando Tatis Jr.
Then I looked into it. And, you know what? They’re right. As of July 20th, Fernando Tatis Jr. is the front-runner to win the National League Most Valuable Player Award for 2021.
The stats
Yes, some of these stats seem made up. I couldn’t tell you what RE24 is, for one. However, there are some here that are of real importance.
Being first in WAR in the league is about as good of an indicator as you’re going to get for who the MVP is going to be, although there are some outliers in which that guy is a much better defender than he is an offensive player (offense is key to winning any MLB award). Being first in OPS+ takes care of that, showing that Tatis has been an offensive juggernaut who gets on base and hits for a ton of power.
Now, that list of stats was obviously cherry-picked to show a bunch of categories in which Tatis is 1st, but it’s even more impressive when you look at the stats not shown here.
2nd in wRC+
2nd in wOBA
1st in ISO
1st in HR
1st in Runs
3rd in RBI (Machado is 2nd!)
1st in Stolen Bases
No matter how you look at it, Tatis is the best offensive player in the National League this season.
The face
If you watched any of the festivities during the MLB All-Star Game, you already know that the league is all-in on two relatively new players as the face of baseball: Shohei Ohtani and Fernando Tatis Jr.
The league and its assembled media would love nothing more than to have one or both of those guys end this year with hardware as a way to promote the bright future of the sport. And, since the assembled media (whose jobs and future employment are literally tied to the success and future success of the league) are the ones voting on the award, that matters.
The team
Here is where Ohtani is going to face a challenge that Tatis is not. Some baseball writers still don’t like giving major awards to players from non-playoff teams. They want to know that these numbers were put up in important moments, in important games.
The San Diego Padres are definitely playoff contenders, and potentially World Series contenders, and part of that has been due to Tatis. He has had big moments on big stages (including 2 home runs against Clayton Kershaw at Dodger Stadium on national television) and those moments will eventually affect the MLB Playoffs.
The highlights
Mike Trout has been the best player in baseball for a decade or so. There have been lots of debates on whether or not that’s good for the sport, because Trout isn’t exactly the world’s most exciting player. He’s just great.
Tatis is at that level of greatness, or close to it, but he’s also a human highlight reel. Whether it’s scoring from third on an infield fly, or jumping six feet in the air to nab a line drive, or simply doing things that a body shouldn’t be able to do to avoid a tag at first base, you see Tatis on ESPN and MLB Network every night doing another thing that makes you say wow.
That’s the way MLB wants (or needs) to be. They want to be exciting. Tatis is getting kids back into the sport for the first time in a long time. Rewarding his reckless, but entertaining, style of play is one way to encourage future players to follow his path. It would be a stamp from baseball that says “This is supposed to be exciting.”
The competition
Truth be told, I first looked at Tatis’ MVP chances a week or two ago. I came away from that little research project feeling not great about his chances of winning the whole thing, mostly because of the other contenders.
First, I thought there was a real chance that Ronald Acuña Jr. would win it if the two of them had similar offensive numbers (which they do). Acuña plays on the east coast, meaning more of his games are watched by more baseball writers, and his defense has been stellar this season (unlike Tatis). Then…
I also thought that Jacob deGrom, who is the obvious favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award, had a chance of stealing the NL MVP Award, too. He’s been that ridiculous. Record-breaking, even. Those things don’t go unnoticed, and they definitely don’t go unnoticed in New York. Then…
So, Acuña and deGrom are likely out of the running. There’s an outside chance for Trea Turner, but he’d have to outperform Tatis the rest of the way.
Maybe the best candidate to catch Tatis at this point would be the Dodgers’ Max Muncy, but I can’t see him doing it if he’s still trailing Tatis in HRs at the end of the season.
The legend
Professional sports love a kid. They love the promise that it presents.
Major League Baseball would love nothing more than storylines at the end of this season about just how many MVP awards Tatis is going to win by the end of his 14-year contract.
Tatis wouldn’t be the youngest NL MVP ever, that would be Johnny Bench (who was also 22 when he won), who went on to win a second and then later won two World Series (and one World Series MVP award). But it would still be the start of an era, perhaps a decade or more of dominance by a player who has the promise to be the best and most exciting ever, and that is undeniably appetizing to those who vote on these awards.
At the end of the day, if it’s a toss-up between a 30-year old journeyman first baseman who was terrible last season or potentially the greatest and most exciting player in baseball history, which one do you think they’re going to vote for? Which one do you think they’re going to want to vote for?
So, go on ahead. Let’s build this legend. As long as the kid keeps playing like this, he deserves those M-V-P chants. I’ll even join in this time.