How these Padres were built, Pt. 2: The Great Screw-Up
Looking back at the disastrous 2015 offseason that was meant to help the Padres compete right away but almost ruined their future instead.
To tell the complete story about the 2021 San Diego Padres, you first have to talk about A.J. Preller. Then you have to talk about Preller’s first offseason as the GM of the team, in which he had maybe the most disastrous offseason of any GM in the history of baseball. That’s what we’re going to do today. It’s going to be long. Feel free to skim.
I’d like to start by saying that the definitive telling of this story was done by Rany Jazayerli on Grantland, when such a site existed. It was titled Takedown Artist: How general manager A.J. Preller destroyed the San Diego Padres in a matter of months, which is an accurate title. But Rany wrote that in July of 2015, when it seemed like Preller would simply flame out after one disastrous season and would go back to being an international scout somewhere.
The fact that Preller is now the mastermind behind one of the most impressive team-building we’ve ever seen is a testament to the patience of the Padres and the belief that they had in their upstart GM, and the belief that he had in himself.
How these Padres were built:
It’s important to know that when Preller sold himself to Mike Dee, part of what he was selling was this plan. The Padres could build for the long-term and win in the short-term at the same time. That was what he sold, and as soon as he was hired, it was his job to pull it off.
The pitch went something like this: Nobody knows the value of international scouting like Preller. So, screw the MLB Draft, the Padres were going to trade away their prospects for players that were good right now. This is a good plan because the Padres were historically bad at developing prospects. Then, to replenish the system (since they would theoretically be good and couldn’t rely on high draft picks), the Padres were going to sign every good international free agent under the sun.
Think of Preller explaining it to Dee as though the Padres had a few million dollars in the couch cushions that he never realized. No wonder he got the job.
Preller eventually did pull this plan off, but not the way he originally envisioned it. Cheers to learning from our mistakes! Because in that first offseason, he made a lot of mistakes. Let’s go through them!
December 18: San Diego Padres trade Yasmani Grandal, Joe Wieland, and Zach Eflin to Los Angeles Dodgers for Matt Kemp, Tim Federowicz, and cash
In three seasons with the Padres, Grandal had put up 4.3 WAR but there were signs he could break out and be special. In four seasons with the Dodgers before hitting free agency, Grandal put up 10.4 WAR and was probably the best catcher in all of baseball. Whoops!
If you’re looking for some rationale for this move, the Padres had soured a bit on Grandal, who had been suspended after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance.
Sticking with this measurement system, Matt Kemp put up an impressive 22.9 WAR in ten years with the Dodgers before being sent south down the 5 freeway. In two seasons with the Padres, he got a whole 0.7 WAR and his career on got worse from there. The Padres ended up trading him away for nothing (literally, they released the guy they traded him for before he even got here).
This was the centerpiece deal of the offseason that was supposed to bring the Padres a superstar that could put balls over the wall and butts in the seats. It failed miserably and cost the Padres a ton of money, but even more in talent loss.
Zach Eflin has been, and continues to be, a league-average pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies. Joe Wieland has been worse than that. Tim Federowicz has never been anything more than a below-average backup catcher.
San Diego eventually did learn an important lesson from Kemp, and manager Andy Green, who was never happy in the controlled environment of the Padres. It made sense, when the team eventually added another superstar years later, to give that player more freedom to express themselves and play the game their own way.
December 18: San Diego Padres trade Jesse Hahn and R.J. Alvarez to Oakland Athletics for Derek Norris, Seth Streich, and cash
This trade happened on the same day as the Kemp one, which is a funny Preller quirk. He loves to talk for weeks, or months, and then pull the trigger on a bunch of deals really close to one another. I’m not sure why, but it’s always fun.
This was also the first real example of Preller believing in something that other GMs don’t, which has become a calling card of his. In this case, Preller believed that Derek Norris could be a full-time catcher without his effectiveness dropping. He was wrong, unfortunately.
Norris played one okay season as the starting catcher for the Padres before completely falling apart. He carried a passable .709 OPS in his first season and a horrid OPS of .583 in his second. The frustrations on the field then led to him beating his fiancee off the field, and his time in San Diego was over. I hope he rots in hell.
Norris was traded to the Washington Nationals for little-known pitcher Pedro Avila, who once pitched 5 solid innings for the Padres in 2019 but has otherwise been injured. He’s pitching okay for the triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas this year!
Jesse Hahn was never as good as he was in his one year with San Diego, when he was above-average, and the rest of these guys never amounted to much. I guess Preller didn’t give up much in this one.
December 19: In a three-team trade with the Tampa Bay Rays and Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres trade Rene Rivera, Burch Smith, Joe Ross, Jake Bauers, and a player to be named later in exchange for Wil Myers, Ryan Hanigan, Gerardo Reyes, and Jose Castillo
Lots going on here. Let’s stick with the big pieces.
First, that player to be named later was Trea Turner, who the team could not yet trade due to MLB rules because he had just been drafted. In seven seasons with the Nationals, all Trea has done is collect 21.0 WAR and play the two most important defensive positions on the field. He has gotten votes for Rookie of the Year and MVP, and was a big reason why the Nationals have a World Series ring.
Joe Ross, little brother of former Padres pitcher Tyson Ross, started his Nationals career on fire. He posted a combined WAR of 3.3 in his first two seasons but has really fallen off a cliff since then. Still, he was also a big contributor to a World Series win.
Those were the two big pieces going out for one big piece coming in: Wil Myers.
After winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 2013, Wil Myers had a very disappointing 2014 season. Preller gambled that Myers was closer to the rookie version of himself than the sophomore version, and the truth is somewhere in the middle. With the exception of the last year’s short season, Myers has never reproduced the offensive numbers or played the level of defense he did in that rookie campaign.
After making the all-star team in 2016, the Padres signed Myers to the largest contract in Padres history and put faith in him being a star in baseball. The trade for him looks very lopsided (Myers has put up about half the WAR of Trea Turner since the trade!), but the contract looks worse.
At the end of the day, Myers ended up being not much better than Ryan Hanigan, who was also acquired in this deal. Wil has posted 10.7 WAR over seven seasons with the Padres and Ryan Hanigan….wait, where’d Ryan Hanigan go?
December 19: San Diego Padres trade Ryan Hanigan to Boston Red Sox for Will Middlebrooks
Ah. Separate deal, same day. That’s four trades in two days, so far. Preller would eventually stop after five in two days.
Hanigan ended up being a really solid catcher for the Reds, and later the Rays, posting a combined WAR of 9.4 across eight seasons before age started affecting his performance.
Hanigan’s one day tenure with the Padres netted them Will Middlebrooks, who Preller believed could put up good numbers if given the chance to be a starter. Another example of Preller believing a thing that nobody else did. Middlebrooks posted a .602 OPS and was quickly off the team and out of baseball.
December 19: San Diego Padres trade Jace Peterson, Max Fried, Dustin Peterson, and Mallex Smith to Atlanta Braves for Justin Upton and Aaron Northcraft
After this trade, most of the Padres farm system was gone. In its place was the superstar outfield of Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Justin Upton.
Justin Upton had one of the best seasons of his very good career with the Padres, but then he quickly left as a free agent in the following offseason. When given the chance to get something for Upton before he left, knowing that the Padres were finished before the July 31st trade deadline, Preller was reportedly unreachable by phone and all requests from other teams went unanswered. (I have no idea how he kept his job.)
Jace Peterson turned himself into a solid utility player who continues to bounce around MLB. Mallex Smith had a couple of great seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays but has come down to Earth since then.
The real win of the deal for the Braves was Max Fried, who continues to be great for them. He won a Gold Glove last year and finished 5th in NL Cy Young voting, and he’s pitching just as good this year.
That feels like a lot to give up for one year of Justin Upton.
December 29: San Diego Padres trade Johnny Barbato to New York Yankees for Shawn Kelley
December 30: San Diego Padres trade Seth Smith to Seattle Mariners for Brandon Maurer
After five trades in two days, Preller finally rested. He took a ten day break and then pulled off these two moves, meant to bolster the Padres bullpen. They’re fine, but they’re nothing special. They just needed to be included.
February 11: San Diego Padres sign free agent James Shields to a four-year contract
We’ll talk about James Shields’ place in San Diego Padres history later this week, but you should know that everyone knew this was a bad signing before it happened. Shields was 33-years old and showing real signs of slowing down.
A one-year deal would’ve been excusable, but the Padres were the laughingstock of the league and they needed an ace. James Shields was definitely not an ace, but he’s all that was available to Preller, who had promised that the team would contend right away.
It did not go well. Shields posted a -0.3 WAR over parts of two seasons as the “ace” of the staff.
March 30: San Diego Padres trade Alex Torres to New York Mets for Cory Mazzoni and a PTBNL
April 5: San Diego Padres trade Cameron Maybin, Carlos Quentin, Matt Wisler, Jordan Paroubeck, and 2015 Competitive Balance Round A pick to Atlanta Braves for Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton Jr.
Out with the old, in with the new!
Former starter Cameron Maybin no longer had a spot in the outfield to play. Carlos Quentin’s contract was mostly included as cash, everyone knew he was finished and would never play again.
This ended up being Preller’s best trade of the disastrous offseason, because Melvin Upton Jr. and Craig Kimbrel were both really good in 2015 and turned into valuable trade assets after that. No complaints on this one!
What should’ve happened next
A.J. Preller destroyed the San Diego Padres. When you look at the valuable young pieces they traded away (Yasmani Grandal, Trea Turner, Max Fried, Mallex Smith, Joe Ross, etc.) it’s easy to see that they would’ve been better off just waiting. Being patient. But that’s not what Preller had sold Mike Dee on, and so moves had to be made.
The delicious irony is that everyone knew this was a disaster. Most knew it as it was happening, but it was clear to all of baseball once the smoke had cleared. Preller had somehow taken the worst franchise in baseball and made them worse, while also emptying out the farm system and making the payroll a lot more expensive.
I’d wager that most GMs would’ve been fired by their employer after an initial offseason like that. But the impatient Preller was given patience by the Padres. They trusted him and gave him the keys to try again after his initial plan imploded.
That’s what I’ll be writing about tomorrow. Rebuild, take two. The 2016 teardown and everything that came as a result of it, including a player that would change everything for the San Diego Padres.