Let's talk about schedule losses
The San Diego Padres are playing in San Francisco tonight against the Giants and are probably going to lose. It’s fine, really. They have plenty of excuses.
Yesterday, the San Diego Padres won the rubber-match against the Phillies in Philadelphia and then flew 3,000 miles to San Francisco. Even if their body clocks weren’t messed up, that’s an exhausting day. And tonight (30+ minutes later than their usual home games) they have to play against the Giants, who last played on Wednesday in Colorado.
This is what is known as a “schedule loss”. Over the course of a season, and this doesn’t just happen in baseball, the schedule-makers have to bake in some really shitty situations for some teams. They do try their best to spread the pain around evenly.
I’m sure the Padres sent Sean Manaea to San Francisco a day or two ago so that at least he isn’t completely gassed, but the offense will likely be running on fumes.
The Padres’ next off day is on Wednesday, six days from now. They’ll need to find ways to get their legs under them without a day off or risk getting pushed around by some pretty good teams in the Giants and Brewers.
The good news is that, through the course of the season, good teams will occasionally steal a schedule loss. It makes it easier for them to swallow a blown lead later in the season. So, even though the Padres are at a disadvantage, it doesn’t mean they will lose. If we’ve learned anything from this team, it’s that they’re willing to fight and believe in themselves.
Where we’re going / Where we’ve been
The quarter-pole of the season is somewhere around game 40, but that will happen over the weekend and I’m impatient, so I wanted to take a moment to back up and try and add some perspective into the conversation around the 2022 San Diego Padres.
One piece of perspective that I think is missing is comparing this year to last year.
It’s one thing to say “The pitching this year is incredible,” but last year’s team had only allowed 127 runs after 38 games (3.34 runs/gm) versus 147 runs this year (3.86 runs/gm). Remember how dominant pitching was early last season before they banned sticky substances?
You can say “The offense really misses Fernando Tatis, Jr. and decent performances from Trent Grisham and Jake Cronenworth,” but would it surprise you to find out that last year’s team scored less (154 runs) in their first 38 games than this year’s team (165 runs)?
But your eyes have not deceived you. This year’s team is better than last year’s by three games. The 2022 Padres are 24-14 after 38 games, and were 21-17 after 38 games last season. Even without their best player, the Padres have consistently found ways to win at home and on the road.
Series Preview: Padres at Giants
Let’s do this real quick.
Friday: Sean Manaea vs. Jakob Junis
Saturday: Joe Musgrove vs. Carlos Rodón
Sunday: Mike Clevinger vs. Alex Wood
Pitching has not been the strong suit of the 2022 Giants. Even Rodón, their big free agent signing of the offseason, looked shaky in his last outing (he gave up 8 runs in 3.2 innings to the Cardinals). However, their offense has been one of the best in all of baseball.
But there’s a magic about these Padres. They just keep finding ways to win. They came very close to winning the previous series in San Francisco. That series ended with the Padres down 1 run and Matt Beaty striking out with the bases loaded. Beaty is gone now, replaced with future Hall of Famer Robinson Canó.
If they can find a way to win this one, it will be almost impossible to deny that the Padres (without their best player!) are one of the best and most complete teams in the league.
Oh, there’s also this:
Perhaps that adds just a little pep in everyone’s step.
I’ll be back on Monday with more, barring breaking news. Have a good weekend, everyone.