NLCS Game 3 Preview: Padres head to Philadelphia
As the San Diego Padres travel to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies, it's time to update what we know and think about these lineups after two games.
I woke up a bundle of nerves today, after being quite confident in the San Diego Padres’ chances of winning the NLCS after game 2, and I imagine I’m not alone in that regard.
Either way, let’s talk about this game today!
The (Starting) Pitchers
Joe Musgrove is the starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres today. In two starts this postseason, he has a 1-0 record with a 1.38 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. He has been responsible for the best starting pitching performance of the playoffs, at least for the Padres, and the best moment of the playoffs (his celebration post-ear check).
In five career games against the Phillies, Musgrove has a 3.00 ERA and a 0.889 WHIP. In two games at Citizen’s Bank Park in Philadelphia (one as a starter, one as a reliever), he has a 2.00 ERA to go with a 0.778 WHIP in 9.0 IP. There’s reason to believe he can be successful today, even in that ballpark against that lineup.
Ranger Suárez, a lefty, has one start in these playoffs and pitched well but for a short period of time. He was lifted after 3.1 innings, with the Phillies holding a 4-1 lead over the Braves at the time, but I’m not sure why. Coincidentally, his last regular season start also lasted just 3.0 innings but that’s because Suárez got blown up.
This is a good thing to pay attention to, because the Phillies don’t have a very deep bullpen. If Suárez is out before the 5th inning for the third consecutive start, that will spell trouble for the Philadelphia Phillies.
In four career appearances against the Padres (one as a starter), Suárez has a 1.64 ERA and a WHIP of 1.000. As a lefty, it will probably be up to Manny Machado and Brandon Drury and Josh Bell (or Wil Myers?) to do the heavy lifting in getting to Suárez early.
Update: The Lineups
The lineups are not officially out yet, but I am willing to bet the Padres lineup looks something like this today (with 2022 postseason OPS for each player):
Ha-Seong Kim, SS (.578 OPS)
Juan Soto, RF (.560 OPS)
Manny Machado, 3B (1.014 OPS)
Brandon Drury, 1B (.474 OPS)
Josh Bell, DH (.694 OPS)
Jake Cronenworth, 2B (.549 OPS)
Jurickson Profar, LF (.729 OPS)
Trent Grisham, CF (1.019 OPS)
Austin Nola, C (.768 OPS)
I also think there’s a chance that we see Grisham bumped down to 9, since he’s been awful, and Nola bumped up to 8, since he’s been great.
I wouldn’t mind a start for Wil Myers against a LHP in a tiny ballpark, but I think the Drury-Bell combination deserves another game after the performance they put on in Game 2.
The Phillies have a LHP lineup and a RHP lineup but they don’t really change them much beyond that. Here’s what you can expect tonight:
Kyle Schwarber, LF (.517 OPS)
Rhys Hoskins, 1B (.524 OPS)
J.T. Realmuto, C (.578 OPS)
Bryce Harper, DH (1.390 OPS)
Nick Castellanos, RF (.483 OPS)
Alec Bohm, 3B (.517 OPS)
Bryson Stott, SS (.385 OPS)
Jean Segura, 2B (.717 OPS)
Brandon Marsh, CF (.896 OPS)
I actually prefer facing this lineup to the one they roll out against LHP, but it all remains the same. Keep the top 5 hitters from hitting dingers and you’ll set yourself up well for a victory.
The Ballpark
This series is going from the 30th (out of 30) best ballpark in baseball for hitters (although it is league-average for day games and better when it’s hot, which explains some of what happened on Wednesday) to the 8th best ballpark in baseball for hitters. Expect more offense.
Specifically, I think we can expect more from the flyball hitters on the Padres such as…
Jake Cronenworth (47.7% FB rate)
Trent Grisham (43.4% FB rate)
Manny Machado (41.2% FB rate)
Brandon Drury (40.6% FB rate)
Kim, Myers and Nola are all just below that 40% FB rate as well. This could be a nice series for all of them.