Padres trade for 2B Adam Frazier
The Padres made their first move of trade deadline season, adding another all-star 2B to their roster. Was it a good deal for them? What does it mean for the rest of the roster?
Almost a week before the MLB trade deadline, the San Diego Padres have made a trade! Let’s go through the details before trying to figure out what it means.
Trade Details
Following a horrendous game in which the Padres got beat to hell by the terrible Miami Marlins, A.J. Preller made the following move:
Padres get
Adam Frazier, 2B
$1.4 million in cash
Pirates get
Tucupita Marcano, IF
Jack Suwinski, OF
Mitchell Miliano, RHP
You’d be forgiven for not knowing who any of those prospects are that are going back to the Pirates. Marcano was the Padres’ #5 prospect, but he was already blocked in the infield by Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth. This is why the team tried to push him into an outfielder role this season.
Quick Reaction
From a cost perspective, the Padres didn’t give up a ton here. You could maybe argue that Marcano could’ve gotten you something else that was more needed (pitching?), but he was always going to be a trade chip. The other two guys are so young and unheralded that predicting their future is a fool’s errand.
Miliano had an okay year in low-A and has been pretty terrible since (recently) getting to high-A. Suwinksi is having a really strong year at the plate, especially getting on base, but it seems to stand out against his past. Either he’s figured something out or he’s getting lucky. I guess we’ll find out!
Finally, let’s get to Adam Frazier. He was the starting 2B for the National League all-star team just a couple weeks ago!
You’ll hear a lot about how he is leading the NL in hits, and that’s great, but that could easily be an anomaly. His BABIP is a hilariously high .359, which means he’s been very lucky this season. There’s some regression that could come his way and it could come this season.
All of that being said, Frazier has been a solid 2-WAR player since turning 26 years old. That’s not bad! He’s not quite as good as, say, Jake Cronenworth but he’s a really solid starter. Especially at second base, where his defense has regularly gotten him Gold Glove votes.
If you’re looking for a one sentence description of what this deal is, the Padres gave the Pirates a handful of lottery tickets and got back a really good everyday starter in return. That’s great value.
Is this the end for Hosmer?
The problem with trading for an all-star second baseman is that the Padres already have one, and he’s better than Frazier. So, why would the Padres trade for another one?
Well, there are a couple of reasons, and we won’t know which one is the right one until after the smoke clears over the next few days (or even maybe next offseason).
Reason #1: Bench depth!
The Padres depth is woefully weak and it has really hurt them when it comes to pinch-hit opportunities late in games. Adding Frazier to the mix gives them a bat that they can trust in those situations.
Reason #2: Utility players keep everyone rested
This is the reason sources gave to journalists last night, after the trade. Frazier would play all over the place, infield and outfield, and give guys days off so that everyone is rested and ready for the late-season grind. This is fine but you take away a lot of Frazier’s value when you start playing him at places other than 2B. Much of his value is in his plus-plus defense up the middle.
This one feels less likely to me because Frazier is going to cost upwards of $7-8 million next year in arbitration, and the Padres already have two utility players making that kind of money in Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim.
Reason #3: Hosmer for sale
This one actually seems the most likely, in my opinion. We’ve seen the Padres playing Eric Hosmer less over recent weeks, and there have been lots of rumors about A.J. Preller trying to find a trade partner that would be interested in him.
Not only has Hosmer been the worst starter on the team this year (and not just this year), but he has a big contract and the Padres are trying to avoid the luxury tax. If they can get him off their books, it gives them a lot of room to play with when adding other players (like pitchers) this deadline and this offseason.
We’ve seen Jake Cronenworth be the superior 1B when given the chance with the Padres, and we saw him play mostly at 1B in this year’s MLB All-Star Game. Moving him to that position and giving Frazier the everyday 2B job gives the Padres an entire infield of 2021 all-stars.
And, if for whatever reason the Padres can’t find a suitor for Hosmer, maybe they just put him on the bench as the late-inning bat instead of Frazier. He’s shown that he hits better in those situations than others, so it might be a good fit for him.