Series Preview: Padres at Rangers
The 4-3 San Diego Padres return to the original home of "Slam Diego" to try and get their offense right against the 3-3 Texas Rangers.
The Padres are on the road for the first time this series, heading to Texas to take on a Rangers team that isn’t necessarily tanking but also shouldn’t be very good.
Pitching matchups
Joe Musgrove vs. Kohei Arihara
Chris Paddack vs. Jordan Lyles
Adrian Morejon vs. Mike Foltynewicz
Arihara is still a bit of an unknown, going 5 IP and giving up 3 ER in his first MLB start, but most would agree that Musgrove is better than him. This gets a little more even when Paddack and Morejon take the ball in games two and three.
As with most series, the Padres will have an advantage when the bullpens open. However, Padres fans might have flashbacks of the bad old times when they see the Texas setup man (Matt Bush) and closer (Ian Kennedy).
What have they done recently?
Both the Rangers and Padres have started off the season with one series win and one series loss. For the Padres, they took a four-game series from the Diamondbacks before losing a home series against the Giants. For the Rangers, they lost a road series in Kansas City before coming back to Texas and taking a series against the Blue Jays.
The Padres offense and starting pitching has been fine, but it’s been their bullpen that’s really helped them stay above .500.
The Rangers are powered by their offense. Their starting pitching and bullpen have been fairly terrible through six games, but it hasn’t matter too much yet.
Key injuries
The San Diego Padres are still without…
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Austin Nola
Dinelson Lamet
Austin Adams
Pierce Johnson
It sounds like Trent Grisham will be activated today and ready to play. His absence has really hurt the Padres depth early on in the season, so having him back is excellent news.
The Rangers have one injured player that hasn’t yet been put on IL (Brock Holt) and one that might be coming off the IL during this series (SP Brett Martin). Holt just feels like the type of guy that kills San Diego, so I’m hoping his hamstring doesn’t magically heal until after the Padres have left town.
Lineups
Grisham CF
Cronenworth 2B
Machado 3B
Hosmer 1B
Myers RF
Pham LF
Profar DH
Kim SS
Caratini/Campusano C
This is my best guess at a lineup, and it relies on Grisham being inserted back in, but mostly it’s a way of showing how many good hitters the Padres will be throwing at the Texas pitchers. If Caratini and Kim continue to hit well, we could see some big numbers from the San Diego offense.
Kiner-Falefa SS
Dahl LF
Gallo RF
Lowe 1B
Solak 2B
White DH
Taveras CF
Trevino C
Culberson 3B
Culberson is usually the utility infielder, but he’ll be called into starting duty if Holt can’t go. That makes them vulnerable to another infield injury, which is why I’m expecting Holt to go on the 10-day IL so the Rangers can add more infield depth.
Joey Gallo is the big name here, and Kiner-Falefa has turned himself into a really solid all-around ballplayer, but the answer to “Why aren’t the Rangers worse this year?” is Nate Lowe.
An above-average first baseman for the Tampa Bay Rays for the past two seasons, Lowe has gotten off to a white-hot start with the Rangers. His 3 HRs in six games puts him on pace for 81 HRs for the season, which probably isn’t sustainable….but the Padres pitchers shouldn’t really mess around with him until he cools off a bit.
Expectations
The Padres are the more talented team. Their starting pitching is better, their relief pitching is better, and their lineup is overall better. This should be a series win for the Padres, but that was also true against the Giants before they lost that series.
San Diego is hoping that their offense springs to life in the friendly confines of Globe Life Field, but the good news is that they can probably win the series without it as long as Nate Lowe doesn’t kill them.