Them Cheatin’ Bums, Part 2: Cheaters Never Prosper
A Series Review of the Padres and Dodgers Spin Rates
Driving 10 MPH over the speed limit is illegal. Driving 10 MPH over the speed limit with the Sundance Kid riding shotgun, as you flee a bank that you just robbed is also illegal. But they are not the same thing. Using sunscreen and rosin to help command a slippery ball is illegal in baseball. Using Spider Tack and/or employing scientists to custom-make a sticky substance in order to make your pitches look like whiffle balls is also illegal in baseball. But they are not the same thing.
The Dodgers are an annoying team with whom to compete. They seem to have a never-ending supply of nasty pitchers each and every year. If they call up some prospect you’ve never heard of, like Victor Gonzalez, and he begins his career with a 1.83 ERA in his first 44.1 innings, you’re not even the least bit surprised. If they sign or trade for reclamation prospects like Jimmy Nelson and David Price and they put up a 1.90 ERA with 14.83 K/9 (up from a career 8.45 career rate) and 3.65 ERA despite being 32 and 35 years old respectively, you don’t even bat an eye. I think I may have discovered a huge ingredient in the recipe of their constant success, and I’m not so sure it’s going to last much longer…
Let’s take a look at how the Dodger’s and Padres’ spin rates faired after the sticky substance ban.
Trevor Bauer
The poster-child for cheating displayed a dramatic and not at all unexpected drop in spin rate on all of his pitches. It was actually much less dramatic than last week, when he likely practiced his non-cheating ways against and anemic Diamondbacks lineup, but it was dramatic nonetheless. I noted in the series preview that a drop in spin rate may dramatically affect his four-seamer and cutter especially (his control pitches to get ahead in the count) and they certainly did. Not only did he drop his usage of his four-seam fastball by nearly twenty percent, he replaced it with a previously seldom-used sinker and increased his slider usage (which I noted was an option that he could use but may lead to more walks… he walked four batters last night). Trevor Bauer is a completely different pitcher who has to find an entirely new repertoire mid-season as karmic justice finally punishes him for his sins.
Source: Baseball Savant
Jimmy Nelson
Well, I figured out how the Dodgers were able to find a cast-off veteran, sign him for $1.3 million and then turn him into an ace reliever with a 1.90 ERA and a K/9 that very nearly DOUBLED. They told him to cheat… The Dodgers are cheaters, let’s move on.
Source: Baseball Savant
Victor Gonzalez
In 1.0 innings split between two games, Victor Gonzalez faced the bottom of the order twice (including Nabil Crismatt) and put gasoline on the fire twice, allowing three walks and an absolute missile off of the bat of Victor Caratini (110.1 EV, .700xBA) that found a glove and resulted in a sacrifice fly instead of a three-run double. I’m not sure I believe this guy’s 1.83 career ERA is going to hold up over time.
Source: Baseball Savant
David Price
Sinkers and changeups are thought to be pitches that are less affected by a drop in spin rate. But cutters are affected pretty heavily. If you take a 35-year-old pitcher who is surviving largely on guile and pitchability (he’s in the 4th percentile in chase rate and 17th percentile in whiff rate, so he’s not exactly fooling people) in his twilight years and dramatically drop the spin rate on his best pitch, things may not go so well. I think David Price will still be a decent, albeit overpaid, depth piece who provides valuable innings in a long season, but he’s not someone the Dodgers will be happy to trot out against the leagues better offenses.
Source: Baseball Savant
Clayton Kershaw
I expected Clayton Kershaw’s spin rate to drop even more than these numbers show. Kershaw came out in the first inning with a fastball spin rate that was nearly 100 RPMs lower than this listed amount and absolutely terrible shape. After he was checked in the first inning he came out with a much better fastball. He also complained to the commissioner that coaches should have a limited amount of appeals to check an opposing pitcher for substances. I’m suspicious of Clayton Kershaw.
But even if my suspicions are unfounded, this drop in spin rate is going to be enough to force a pitcher who was already incredibly dependent on control and command to be absolutely laser-focused. He absolutely cannot miss his spots with this new fastball. I think he’ll get by just fine, and in fact quite good, during the regular season if these are his actual natural spin rates. But in the post-season, where every single hitter is absolutely locked-in for each and every at bat… he might have a collapse or two waiting for him.
Source: Baseball Savant
Julio Urias
Julio Urias was another pitcher whose spin rate dropped less than I would have guessed. He never had a sudden fluctuation like Kershaw did, so I think he may have found some way to compensate for the lack of sticky (some pitchers have said you have to hold the grip deeper in your hand without the stick ‘em). Unfortunately for Urias, he also walked 4 batters in 4.0 innings and appeared somewhat erratic in general. For a pitcher who only had 10 non-intentional walks in 84.0 innings before Monday, that’s an incredible deviation from his norm.
We’ll have to keep a close eye on that trend because, as I said in the preview, his fastball has been hit around pretty dang good (.416 xwOBA, meaning every hitter becomes Fernando Tatis Jr against his fastball), so if he’s falling behind in counts and forced to rely on his fastball, his hard-hit rate is going to increase.
Source: Baseball Savant
Yu Darvish
The Padres in general appeared to be FAR less affected by the new rules. The one Padre who fell off dramatically was Yu Darvish. This was expected because his spin rate saw a sudden dramatic rise earlier in his career after playing for the, surprise, surprise… Dodgers. I noted in an article after his outing, that the change in spin-rate didn’t seem to have a huge effect on the shape of his pitches, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on going forward.
Source: Baseball Savant
Blake Snell
Blake Snell’s breaking balls fell off a somewhat significant amount. But his fastball spin didn’t really drop at all, which seems a bit strange. I suppose it’s possible he was using a non-aerospace grade substance primarily when he was using his breaking balls, or that a rosin/sunscreen helped him grip his breaking balls more effectively than it did his fastballs. Given the fact that his fastball was so incredibly effective and he’s struggled to control is breaking balls all year anyways, I’m much less concerned about Blake Snell than I am about most of the Dodgers arms listed above.
Source: Baseball Savant
Mark Melancon
Mark Melancon’s drop in RPMs wasn’t enormous, but it was significant enough to have me worried. Melancon isn’t a huge strike-out guy and relies heavily on forcing hitters into poor contact. If his cutter becomes even slightly less effective, more baseballs will probably be lined up and driven. One confounding variable is that he pitched in 4 out of 5 games and may have simply been somewhat tired.
Source: Baseball Savant
Increases: Joe Musgrove/Craig Stammen/Emilio Pagan
Before the series I thought Joe Musgrove was one of the more likely Padres to experience a drop in spin rate. He’s a high spin rate guy in general, so he had farther to potentially fall. But during Wednesday’s game most of his pitches actually INCREASED in spin rate. The only pitch that really dropped was his changeup, which is one of the very few pitches that you WANT to have a lower spin rate. You know that borderline ace the Padres acquired from the Pirates? He’s going to continue pitching like a borderline ace.
Craig Stammen and Emilio Pagan also experienced a modest increase in their spin rate.