What's wrong with the Padres offense?

The Padres are off to a slower start than expected with the bats. Let's dig in to try and find out why.

The San Diego Padres have a flaw, and it’s one that should feel very familiar to anyone who has been watching this team over the last two decades. While the team’s pitching has been fantastic without exception, the offense is scuffling.

As a team, here’s how the Padres rank after scoring just 1 run against the Brewers in a 3-1 loss on Monday:

• 12th in batting average

• 4th in on-base percentage

• 11th in OPS

• 12th in runs scored

• 17th in home runs

Here’s how it compares to last year’s shortened season:

• 10th in batting average

• 8th in on-base percentage

• 4th in OPS

• 3rd in runs scored

• 4th in home runs

The offense has obviously taken a step back. And while the team is currently dealing with a very good Brewers pitching staff, and just finished dealing with the Dodgers, the Padres had these same struggles against the not-very-good Pittsburgh Pirates. Oh, and they have the Dodgers again next weekend.

This isn’t a problem that can be hand-waved away, but it might be one that can be solved by waiting long enough. Let’s dig into what’s wrong with the offense.

Injuries

Look through last night’s lineup and you’ll find three non-pitchers with batting averages under .200 on the Padres side (and three on the Milwaukee side too, for whatever that’s worth):

Fernando Tatis Jr. - Tatis is still swinging for the fences with every swing. His launch angle is sky-high, and when he makes contact with a baseball he is absolutely crushing it. The problem is that he’s striking out at a preposterous rate and not barreling the ball regularly enough to make the new approach (this is likely tied to the shoulder injury) worth it.

Victor Caratini - Caratini is already a favorite amongst the pitchers and fans of the team. He’s come through with clutch hits and helped create the first no-hitter in Padres history. He’s also not a good offensive player and is better served in a backup role. He’s been pushed into a starting job due to an injury to Austin Nola, and because Luis Campusano has proven to not be ready.

Tommy Pham - We’ll dig more into Mr. Pham in a minute, but the #1 reason he’s in the lineup every day is Trent Grisham’s fight against leg injuries. Pham was the team’s every day center fielder until Grisham returned, and was back at center field against last night after Pham’ sustained a minor leg injury in the Dodgers series. The Padres know his offense is killing them right now, but they’re out of other options.

The Petco Effect

Used to be that Petco Park was thought of as a pitcher’s park because it was so difficult to hit home runs. Changes made a few years back, specifically to bring in the right field fence, have made it a bit stranger now.

Petco Park isn’t quite a hitter’s park now, but it is a place to see home runs. Only four other MLB ballparks allow more home runs this season, but getting a hit seems maybe more difficult at the Padres’ home than it was before the changes. Petco ranks 23rd in hits allowed this season, and was second-to-last in the category in 2020. Before you scream “small sample size,” Petco ranked 27th in hits allowed in 2019 (but 22nd in home runs).

I’m not anywhere close to understanding anything about how Petco Park is affecting offense, but it definitely is affecting offense in some way. The good news, as we know, is that the ballpark usually plays better in the summer when the weather warms up.

Pham’s Awful Luck

Tommy Pham’s luck is still terrible.

Remember when the Padres traded for Pham and we, as fans, got very excited? Tommy Pham was a borderline all-star player, rated as the best left fielder in the NL West before last season. So, what happened?

For simplicity’s sake, let’s compare everything back to 2017. Pham posted an OPS+ of 144 that season and got some NL MVP votes. That’s the guy we want on the Padres.

Well, he’s barreling balls at a higher rate in 2021 than 2017. His average exit velocity is higher. His sweet spot % and hard hit % are roughly the same. He’s striking out less and walking more. If you look at these advanced metrics and ignore things like batting average or OPS, you’d probably assume that Pham was having an all-star type of season.

Instead, Pham is hitting like one of the worst starting players in the league:

So far, Pham has posted career lows for batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, even isolated power. There are stretches where you can see it getting to him, and suddenly he’ll start chasing pitches and striking out, but mostly he has tried to stay level-headed while working walks and hitting the ball hard.

I still believe that Pham is going to break out at some point this year but, when Grisham comes back, he might need to spend a few days on the bench. He was talking in spring training about not being totally recovered from getting stabbed in the offseason, and since then he’s got the 5th most plate appearances on the team.

The team also played him a ton in spring training, worried that he would injure himself going too hard in the gym if he was given a day off.

Home Runs

Whatever it is, Pham and Tatis and Caratini (plus a pitcher) are making about half of the San Diego lineup easy to get out. That means that, even more than before, the team needs to rely on home runs to score runs. Any rally started by the top of the lineup dies by time it reaches the bottom of the lineup.

Tatis and Pham were expected to contribute to home run totals this year, as were the injured Grisham and Nola. The Padres either need their injured players to return (to hit dingers) or they need Tatis and Pham to get hot (and hit dingers), otherwise the offense is going to continue to be frustratingly inconsistent.